Daily Brief · October 26, 2026
Bank earnings outlooks diverge as acquisition execution advances
Flagstar delays its recovery targets, peers report earnings gains, and acquisition milestones and stablecoin rewards rules reshape operating priorities.
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Earnings outlooks
Flagstar delays turnaround targets and cuts profit forecasts
The bank moved its strategic-target timeline from 2027 to 2028, citing higher interest rates and inflationary pressure. It cut expected 2026 net income to $85 million–$95 million from $225 million–$300 million and its 2027 forecast to $400 million–$500 million from $800 million–$900 million. Expected loan-loss provisions rose to $160 million–$170 million for 2026 and $175 million–$225 million for 2027. Flagstar paused share buybacks, expects to resume them sometime in 2027, and identified deposit growth as key to diversifying its balance sheet.
Source: American Banker
American Express raises its 2026 EPS guidance after record Q3 revenue
Third-quarter revenue rose 9% to a record $20.1 billion and EPS rose 31% to $5.42. Billed business grew 8% to $454 billion. Excluding the gain on its Global Business Travel Group stake, adjusted EPS was $4.68, up 13% and above the $4.50 analysts expected. American Express now expects 2026 EPS of $18.30 to $18.60, up from its prior range, citing billings growth, new card acquisitions and credit quality.
KeyCorp deposit growth supports its margin target
Third-quarter earnings of $0.51 per share exceeded analysts’ $0.46 estimate. Average deposits reached $151.2 billion, up $3.6 billion from June 30, including $2.8 billion of growth excluding time deposits. KeyCorp reiterated a year-end 2027 net interest margin target of 3.25%, versus 2.95% in the third quarter, with about $24 billion of lower-yielding securities, swaps and residential mortgages expected to run off by the end of 2027.
Source: American Banker
Citigroup earnings beat comes with a card-credit caveat
Citigroup posted EPS of $2.85, above consensus, and revenue growth of 7.9%; credit-card delinquencies and net losses also increased. Citigroup now expects 2026 return on tangible common equity above 11%, versus its previous 10%–11% range. Third-quarter performance was 11.5%, and management warned that seasonal markets activity could reduce fourth-quarter revenue.
Sources: MarketBeat, American Banker
Post-merger earnings
Fifth Third completes Comerica conversion and projects further earnings benefits
The systems conversion finished over Labor Day weekend, and third-quarter adjusted EPS was $1.13 with adjusted return on tangible common equity of 20.6%. Management expects remaining synergies in the fourth quarter. Its fourth-quarter guidance calls for net interest income growth of 2.5%–3.5% and a 2%–3% decline in noninterest expense, following third-quarter results supported by lower-than-expected credit-loss provisions and expense control.
Sources: BigGo Finance, Seeking Alpha
Pinnacle Financial Partners reports $364 million in common-shareholder earnings
Its third-quarter filing reported diluted EPS of $2.40 and adjusted diluted EPS of $2.69. Pinnacle attributes performance to loan and deposit growth and higher fee income following the Synovus merger; the reported adjusted per-share result remains distinct from the unadjusted figure.
Sources: SEC 8-K, Stock Titan
Acquisition debt and completion
First Citizens repays 47% of its SVB acquisition debt
The bank reported $17 billion repaid and aims to retire the remaining balance by the end of 2027. That updates the $8.5 billion repayment total reported in July, when management identified excess liquidity, Federal Home Loan Bank borrowings, long-term debt and brokered deposits as potential funding sources for further repayments.
Source: American Banker
BancFirst completes SpiritBank acquisition and merger
The October 23 filing reports the acquisition of Spirit BankCorp and the merger of SpiritBank into BancFirst. The Tulsa-based target had approximately $866.8 million in assets, moving the transaction from its previously announced agreement stage to completion.
Source: SEC 8-K
Stablecoin rewards and deposits
OCC final stablecoin rule leaves third-party rewards subject to individual review
The rule retained the ban on issuers paying yield directly to holders but removed a proposed presumption against certain third-party rewards. The OCC will assess those arrangements case by case rather than provide explicit legal safe harbors; an issuer that refuses to revise a rejected program could be denied a license. Banking industry groups warn that rewards could divert deposits from banks, rather than reporting an observed deposit outflow.
Source: American Banker